Geopolitical Forecast 2026

Highlights Forecasted for 2026

• U.S. national security priorities shift in a way that will likely reshape 2026. ZeroFox assesses the most significant geopolitical shift of 2025 was the Trump administration’s restructuring of U.S. priorities, reducing the U.S. role as primary enforcer and financier of international security commitments. 
• Latin America becomes a primary focus for U.S. resources. The United States will very likely redirect further resources toward establishing a secure foothold in Latin America, countering Chinese influence, and tackling narcotrafficking and immigration priorities. 
• More instability is very likely across the Eastern Hemisphere. With the United States less focused on Eastern Hemisphere security, there will very likely be increased armed conflict and social unrest there, particularly in parts of Asia and Africa. 
• Ceasefires and settlements are unlikely to hold long-term. Settlements in the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars, if reached, are unlikely to hold in the long term, and this trend is likely to apply to other conflicts where U.S. interests have diminished. 
• Tariffs and affordability concerns will likely shape 2026 supply chain decisions. U.S. tariffs were very likely the most important supply chain development of 2025; in 2026, affordability and limiting inflationary impacts will likely be prominent concerns.

Explore Regional Trends Inside the Report

• Europe: Europe will likely assume greater responsibility for its own security as U.S. involvement decreases, while Russia continues hybrid activity and any Russia–Ukraine settlement remains unlikely to hold.
• North America: The United States will likely prioritize domestic stability, border security, and influence in the Western Hemisphere, reshaping alliances and reducing global security commitments.
• South America: U.S. attention will very likely shift toward South America to counter Chinese influence, address narcotrafficking and immigration, and manage escalation risks tied to Venezuela.
• Middle East: Any ceasefire or settlement in the Israel–Hamas conflict is unlikely to be durable, with reduced U.S. engagement contributing to continued regional instability.
• Asia: Instability across parts of Asia is likely to increase as U.S. focus declines, while U.S.–China tensions remain managed but Taiwan persists as a long-term flashpoint.
• Africa: Armed conflict and social unrest are very likely to expand in parts of Africa as international security support wanes and competition for critical resources intensifies.