2023 Polish Elections

Since Poland voted overwhelmingly to join the European Union (EU) in late 2003, it has been a model for successful post-Communist economic development. Policies such as free market reforms, infrastructure improvements, and rapid digitization lifted pay and dramatically increased quality of life across the country. In addition, Poland’s EU membership has allowed it to unlock its potential as a low-wage industrial powerhouse and effectively compete with its Western peers, who often appear dated and inefficient by comparison. Poland is undoubtedly one of eastern Europe’s premier economies and recently achieved the sixth-largest gross domestic product (GDP) within the EU.

However, Poland has experienced significant democratic backsliding since the governing Law Justice Party (PiS) won a parliamentary majority in 2015, harming the country’s economy. The European Commission is currently withholding billions in development aid as punishment for domestic laws and policies that allegedly breach European common values and rule of law. 

In the short term, these geopolitical tensions within the EU provide the opportunity for anti-Western threat actors to target the upcoming elections with disinformation campaigns aimed at limiting Poland's relationship with its Western allies in favor of closer ties with Russia. In the long term, Poland’s anti-democratic tendencies have the potential to endanger its overall EU membership, as support for the ongoing European integration will likely continue to diminish if PiS maintains its grip on power—especially once the country transforms from a beneficiary of the EU budget into a net contributor.

Read the full Polish elections assessment to learn more.