Russia-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence

Conflict Updates

Brief

May 26, 2022

The Russia-enforced blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast has prevented Ukraine from exporting an estimated 20 million tons of grain, and European Union (EU)-proposed plans to circumvent the blockade face significant short-term obstacles. Ukrainian and Russian leaders dismissed an Italian peace proposal, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky compared suggestions that Ukraine give up Crimea to the appeasement of Nazi Germany.

Brief

May 19, 2022

The Russian Defense Ministry said that 1,730 Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol’s
Azovstal steel plant have left the complex since evacuations began on May 16, 2022. It is unclear how a prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia will proceed, and some evacuees will likely face criminal proceedings in Russia on charges of association with the Azov Battalion.

Sweden and Finland formally submitted their applications for NATO membership on May 18, 2022, but their quick approval may be held up by Turkish opposition.

Brief

May 12, 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not declare war on Ukraine or announce a general mobilization during his May 9, 2022, Victory Day speech. However, U.S. intelligence officials still believe that he intends to again expand the war beyond the Donbas if the Russian military’s ongoing offensive is successful.

Brief

May 5, 2022

Russia is unlikely to announce a general military mobilization during the May 9, 2022 Victory Day celebrations, as it would risk losing public support for the conflict and incur high military and economic costs.

The sixth European Union sanctions package has been announced, but
the proposed sanctions face opposition from multiple member states.

Brief

April 28, 2022

Russian state-owned corporation Gazprom suspended natural gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria, citing the two countries’ refusal to pay for gas in Russian rubles.

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Russia would respond to any perceived outside intervention in Ukraine, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that the conflict risks
escalating into nuclear war.

Brief

April 21, 2022

The Russian battleship Moskva sank in the Black Sea one week ago, but Russia has not released any casualty figures and continues to suppress information about the disaster.

Mariupol’s last defenders and an estimated 1,000 civilians are trapped inside the Azovstal steel factory, the last point of Ukrainian control in the city, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has already declared Mariupol’s “liberation.”

Brief

April 14, 2022

Russia is preparing an offensive in southeastern Ukraine with the goal of conquering the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Mariupol is close to falling to Russian forces, but widespread claims of a large Ukrainian surrender and the Russian use of chemical weapons are unverified.

Brief

April 7, 2022

Russia’s withdrawal from the Kyiv outskirts revealed significant destruction to the surrounding towns. Western leaders responded by introducing new sanctions to target Russian banks and the family of top Russian officials.

The Russian military is shifting
forces to southeast, where its effort will focus on conquering the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Brief

March 31, 2022

A negotiated end to the war is unlikely in the near term, despite signs of progress from March 29, 2022, talks in Istanbul. Ukraine has proposed a military alliance to guarantee its security against Russian aggression, but its adoption is improbable due to the requirement of Western military intervention.

Brief

March 18, 2022

Relations between Russia and China have increasingly warmed, although this doesn't mean China will support all of Russia's decisions. Russia's current military offensive in Ukraine appears to be a major stressor in the Russia-China alliance, testing their so-called “no-limits” cooperation.

Brief

March 17, 2022

Ukrainian and Russian delegations have reportedly made progress in negotiations, but a peace settlement remains a distant prospect. The United States has announced immediate military aid to Ukraine, and Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he will increase public sector salaries, pensions, and the minimum wage to counteract the effects of Western sanctions.

Brief

March 10, 2022

A concerted Russian assault in Kyiv is anticipated but dependent on their success encircling the city, which has been slowed in recent days. The first high-level negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers concluded with no ceasefire agreement.

Brief

March 7, 2022

Russian forces are intensifying their attacks on Ukraine’s cities, and the humanitarian situation in Ukraine is deteriorating. This Intelligence Brief provides situational updates regarding the conflict itself and the responses from Western leaders.

Brief

March 3, 2022

Despite suffering setbacks from pushback by a determined Ukrainian military and stiffer Western response than anticipated, Russia’s military escalation in Ukraine is unlikely to end soon, as Russia’s primary focus remains decapitating the current Ukrainian government.

Brief

February 24, 2022

Early on February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine. While the situation is evolving rapidly, the ZeroFox Intelligence teams have shared their initial observations, assessments, and recommendations in this Intelligence Brief.

Infrastructure and Financial Impacts

Brief

March 28, 2022

In response to sanctions, the Russian government has made decisions that could make it increasingly difficult and expensive for companies to protect intellectual property within Russia.

Companies should give these challenges careful consideration when making decisions about whether to continue operations in Russia.

Brief

March 9, 2022

This Intelligence Brief includes observations from the ZeroFox Intelligence teams nearly two weeks since Russia’s military escalation, Including impacts on the global economy, supply chains, energy prices and other critical factors.

Brief

March 4, 2022

The ZeroFox Intelligence teams share their observations and analysis around Ukraine's request for ICANN to revoke Russia's TLDs and SSL certificates. However, ICANN, the United States, and its European Union (EU) counterparts have expressed no interest in sanctions that would restrict Russian access to the global internet.

Brief

March 2, 2022

This Intelligence Brief focuses on the various supply chain impacts resulting from the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. The primary considerations for supply chains will be the valuable commodities produced by Russia and Ukraine and the impacts the Russia-Ukraine conflict will have on the beleaguered global trader network.

Cyber Activity

Brief

March 7, 2022

Russian forces are intensifying their attacks on Ukraine’s cities, and the humanitarian situation in Ukraine is deteriorating. This Intelligence Brief provides situational updates regarding the conflict itself and the responses from Western leaders.

Brief

March 1, 2022

February 24, 2022, through March 1, 2022, saw a flurry of cyber activity related to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Amid speculation that there would be a massive cyberwar between Russia and the rest of the world, several hacktivist and threat actor groups decided to make their positions on the conflict known.

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