Monthly Geopolitical Assessment December 2025

Monthly Geopolitical Assessment: December 2025

Product Serial: A-2025-11-28a

TLP:CLEAR

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical

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Key Findings

• Little progress has been made in advancing the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas—increasing the risk of the ceasefire ultimately collapsing—while violence has escalated in Lebanon. Both trends are likely to continue in 2026.
• None of the major ceasefire proposals to end Russia’s war in Ukraine are likely to be accepted in the short term. However, a negotiated settlement partitioning Ukraine is likely.
• Taiwan, and related tensions between China and Japan over the island, have emerged as the biggest risk to the U.S.-China trade agreement.
• Military strikes and covert operations inside Venezuela against alleged government-sponsored drug trafficking targets remain likely in 2025. Given the government's supposed role in drug trafficking, there is a roughly even chance the operations will be perceived as aiming to topple the Venezuelan government. Political dialogue aimed at decoupling the government from wider security threats against the United States are less likely.