Geopolitical Forecast Assessment 2026

Geopolitical Forecast Assessment 2026

Product Serial: A-2025-12-18a

TLP:CLEAR

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical

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Key Findings

• ZeroFox assesses that the most significant geopolitical shift of 2025 was the Trump administration’s restructuring of U.S. national security priorities to curtail the United States’ role as a primary enforcer and financier of international security commitments. Therefore, in 2026, the greatest geopolitical impact will likely stem from these changing priorities.
• In 2026, the United States will very likely redirect further resources towards establishing a secure foothold in Latin America, countering Chinese influence, and tackling narcotrafficking and immigration priorities. The shifting U.S. focus towards Latin America will likely coincide with the region electing more political leaders focused on addressing crime and security concerns.
• With the United States less focused on Eastern Hemisphere security, there will very likely be an increase in armed conflict and social unrest there—particularly in southeast and west Asia and parts of Africa.
• Settlements in the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars, if reached, are unlikely to hold in the long term—a trend that is likely to apply to other conflicts where U.S. interests have diminished.
• U.S. tariffs were very likely the most important supply chain development of 2025. In 2026, affordability and limiting the inflationary impact of U.S. tariffs will likely be prominent supply chain concerns.
• Unlike in 2025, the United States and China are likely to avoid major policy decisions that reignite the trade war in 2026. However, over the long term, U.S-China relations will likely remain acrimonious.