ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Iran Protests leading to Likely U.S. Response

ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Iran Protests Leading to Likely U.S. Response

Product Serial: B-2026-01-14a

TLP:CLEAR

In this intelligence brief, ZeroFox researchers report on how acute economic stress, loss of public trust in the government, and military defeats have combined to create the ideal conditions for social unrest in Iran. The U.S. is likely to respond, hoping to create the conditions for a more benign Iran that does not threaten the international community while leaving in place the majority of the government. However, Iran has a host of retaliatory measures it could undertake, including cyber and kinetic engagements.

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Executive Summary

• The Iranian government is under mounting pressure as nationwide protests, initially sparked by a failing economy, continue to rage across the country. The protests began on December 28 over the collapse of the Iranian rial and a new price structure for government-subsidized gasoline.
• Economic stress, loss of public trust in the government, and military defeats have likely combined to create the ideal conditions for the massive spread of this uprising. Despite the government’s weakness, it very likely maintains the ability to put down the latest round of protests in the absence of external intervention. Even if this round of protests is suppressed and Iran returns to the status quo, it is highly likely the population will remain discontented, and a new round of protests will likely begin in 2026.
• U.S. involvement would likely change the calculus for outcomes in Iran. However, the U.S. Department of War is unlikely to conduct sophisticated military operations. The Trump administration is more likely to use diplomacy, increased global pressure, and low-level strikes to influence Iranian behavior.