Monthly Geopolitical Assessment February 2026

Monthly Geopolitical Assessment: February 2026

Product Serial: A-2026-01-30a

TLP:CLEAR

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical

For the most up-to-date list of ZeroFox’s Intelligence Requirements, please visit:

https://cloud.zerofox.com/intelligence/advisories/14956

Link to Download

View the full report here.

Key Findings

• The United States has moved military hardware towards the Middle East. This likely indicates a U.S. intention to force Iran to ease the crackdown measures, stop executing protesters, and establish a more peaceful stance towards its neighbors in the Middle East. If Iran does not comply, it is very likely that a U.S. military strike will occur by mid-February.
• The removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro makes it more likely that there will be further U.S. military operations against nations with adversarial relationships with the United States, close military relations with either Russia or China, or energy resources.
• Western nations are likely to escalate their crackdown efforts on shadow fleet vessels carrying sanctioned energy resources.
• Although the conditions for moving to phase two of the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire agreement have largely been reached, it is unlikely that the peace plan will advance in any meaningful way in the near- to medium-term—and there is a roughly even chance that the conflict will see a major escalation in fighting in that same timeframe.
• Several meaningful and uncertain elections are scheduled for February 2026. Japan’s snap election is likely to have consequential negative impacts on the global economy if the ruling party loses.
• Intensifying geopolitical risks impacting supply chains will likely be a dominant theme of 2026.