Monthly Geopolitical Assessment March 2026

Monthly Geopolitical Assessment: March 2026

Geopolitical and Physical

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The growing U.S. military presence in the Middle East makes it likely that there will be some form of military action against Iran. In turn, Iran has made it clear that it will target the region's energy supply.
Following the successful Mexican special forces operation that killed Mexico’s top cartel leader, El Mencho, retaliatory acts of cartel violence are likely to dissuade further counter-narcotics operations. Mexico’s residents are the primary victims of cartel-related crime, and deliberate targeting of Westerners is rare; however, retaliatory cartel violence in major Mexican cities will likely injure or kill innocent bystanders.
Trade uncertainty will very likely be driven by whether firms will aggressively seek tariff refunds and if U.S. authorities will impose new tariffs to counter the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent ruling that country-specific U.S. tariff rates are illegal.
Continued terror attacks in Pakistan make cross-border fighting with Afghanistan almost certain, while also increasing the probability of renewed hostilities with India.
There is a likely chance of renewed fighting involving Ethiopia before elections in June 2026. Conflict in Ethiopia will likely have a wider impact due to East Africa’s complex web of alliances and rivalries.