SITREP - U.S. Military Strikes on Iran - March 2, 2026

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #3 - U.S. Military Strikes on Iran - March 2, 2026

Product Serial: F-2026-03-02a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Flash report, ZeroFox researchers report on the latest developments from U.S. and Israeli combat operations against Iran and how Iran is responding.

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Key Findings

• Following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamanei, Iran expanded its attacks in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar while Iran-aligned proxy groups in Iraq and Lebanon attacked U.S. and Israeli positions.
• If the Iranian government perceives it is in an existential battle, it will likely revert to asymmetric targeting designed to ensure the survival of the government. This is almost certain to result in Iran increasing its targeting of shipping and energy infrastructure while proxy groups organize attacks against U.S. bases and Red Sea shipping, alongside organizing demonstrations or asymmetric attacks against U.S. diplomatic missions.
• The death of Ayatollah Khamenei increases uncertainty surrounding Iran’s next steps. There is a roughly even chance the changes in leadership will either provide an opening to negotiate the end of the conflict or solidify Iran’s opposition to concessions. This could include amending Iran’s long-standing positions on the nuclear program and its support for regional proxies, but Khamenei’s successor is unlikely to countenance concessions that imperil the government. Any concessions risk being upended by Khamenei's eventual long-term successor.