ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #15 - Military Strikes on Iran

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #15 - Military Strikes on Iran - March 9, 2026

Product Serial: F-2026-03-09b

TLP:CLEAR

In this Flash report, ZeroFox researchers report on the latest developments from U.S. and Israeli combat operations against Iran and how Iran is responding.

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Key Findings

The election of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new supreme leader signals policy continuity in Iran. Iran’s wartime strategy of targeting Gulf nations and broadening the economic costs will very likely continue. Longer term, Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment signals Iran will reject maximalist demands regarding its nuclear program, support for proxy groups, missile programs, and seek to rebuild them once the conflict ends. Israel will very likely target Mojtaba Khamenei.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment is unlikely to change the U.S. and Israel's aims in the short term, with further targeting aimed at debilitating Iran’s offensive weapons program likely over the next week. Expansion beyond these aims would likely include targeting Iran's enriched uranium with ground forces and actions that threaten the political establishment, such as targeting Iranian energy sites.
Economic indicators began reflecting the higher probability of a protracted conflict; however, energy prices continue to reflect an optimistic scenario where the war ends shortly. There is a roughly even chance economic factors determine the United States’ war objectives and the duration of the conflict.