ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #20 - Military Strikes on Iran

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #20 - Military Strikes on Iran - March 12, 2026

Product Serial: F-2026-03-12a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Flash report, ZeroFox researchers report on the latest developments from U.S. and Israeli combat operations against Iran and how Iran is responding.

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Key Findings

Iran continued attacks on oil tankers and cargo vessels in the Persian Gulf overnight, with two tankers struck in the Umm Qasr port in the Iraqi city of Basra. Both this port and the Mina Al Fahal port in Oman have ceased operations. Iran is very likely seeking to impose financial costs on the region in an effort to force the United States to stop hostilities on Iranian terms.
In addition to oil shipping, Iran has threatened to target U.S. economic and banking interests in the region that it believes have contributed to the hostilities against it. Iran likely maintains the capability to conduct sophisticated cyberattacks against the financial sector, as well as technology companies contributing to the war effort.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) recently issued a memo warning of potential Iranian drone attacks on California. The memo reportedly said the FBI has credible intelligence that Iran is seeking to launch drones from unmarked ships off the U.S. coast. If Iran were to attack California, the ports of Los Angeles and San Francisco would be the most likely targets.
Iran almost certainly sees asymmetric warfare as its greatest chance to win the current war and prevent future U.S. and Israeli attacks. Iran is almost certainly seeking an outcome that not only preserves the regime but also ensures future attacks on its territory will be seen as too expensive to consider.