ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #21 - Military Strikes on Iran

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #21 - Military Strikes on Iran - March 12, 2026

Product Serial: F-2026-03-12b

TLP:CLEAR

In this Flash report, ZeroFox researchers report on the latest developments from U.S. and Israeli combat operations against Iran and how Iran is responding.

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Key Findings

U.S. President Donald Trump has continued to signal that the United States is preparing to end hostilities soon, while Iran has signaled that it will continue causing disruptions to Gulf economies and global energy trade as long as it feels threatened.
The prospect of avoiding prolonged disruptions to oil markets is diminishing. The agreement by members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release 400 million barrels of oil is likely a signal that Operation Epic Fury is having difficulty clearing the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) and limiting Iran’s ability to target the region's energy sector. Iran has also broadened its attacks against shipping assets, pushing up the price of oil—likely over concerns about the length of the war.
Iran’s parameters for a ceasefire are that the United States and Israel must guarantee not to target the country in the future. Such a guarantee remains very unlikely while Iran’s political and military establishment remains embedded.