Monthly Geopolitical Assessment April 2026

Monthly Geopolitical Assessment: April 2026

Product Serial: A-2026-03-27a

TLP:CLEAR

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical

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Key Findings

• Iran is expected to leverage its influence over energy markets to ensure that any ceasefire-driven stabilization does not leave the country vulnerable to future targeting. The Trump administration very likely wants to end the war while avoiding a major military escalation but is likely unwilling to end hostilities while Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). Therefore, the United States is likely to pursue a diplomatic de-escalation before a multinational effort to contest Iran’s control over the SoH.
• Israel will likely cease its strikes in concert with the United States if U.S. President Donald Trump declares a ceasefire, but operations in Lebanon will very likely continue regardless.
• It is likely that concessions from Cuba will begin in the coming months as the government attempts to reduce U.S. pressure. U.S. military action similar to that seen in Venezuela does not appear likely in Cuba, especially while the United States is focused on Iran.
• The delay of a high-profile summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to change the outcome, and U.S-China tensions are likely to improve throughout 2026.
• The conflict in Iran is providing a significant economic benefit to Russia, marked by a revenue windfall from spiking global oil prices. However, this economic success is offset by Russia's poor performance on the battlefield, where Ukrainian forces have gained territory and nearly liberated Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Additionally, key European elections in April, led by those in Hungary, are likely to expose Russia's lack of political support in Europe.