ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #31 - Military Strikes on Iran

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #31 - Military Strikes on Iran - April 2, 2026

Product Serial: F-2026-04-02a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Flash report, ZeroFox researchers report on the latest developments from U.S. and Israeli combat operations against Iran and how Iran is responding.

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Key Findings

U.S. President Donald Trump has continued vacillating between threatening to escalate the Iran conflict and winding it down. Iran made its most significant acknowledgement to date that it is open to talks, without conceding on previous demands. There is now a roughly even chance the U.S. military will scale back its operations after meeting only some of its stated goals, such as removing layers of Iran’s leadership and debilitating its weapons program. This would very likely leave Iran in control of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), which Trump has suggested is possible.
Although additional reinforcements for ground operations are anticipated, the U.S. military likely possesses enough existing capabilities to launch such operations now. There is a roughly even chance the United States winds down the conflict after pursuing military goals such as seizing Iran’s enriched uranium, conducting operations against Iranian nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure, or further reducing Iran’s ability to control the SoH.
On March 31, 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a warning to 18 companies (including 16 U.S. and two Dubai-based companies), threatening them with attack for their alleged support of U.S. and Israeli war efforts. The IRGC suggested that employees stay away from their places of work in order to “preserve their own lives.”