ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #33 - Military Strikes on Iran

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #33 - Military Strikes on Iran - April 9, 2026

Product Serial: F-2026-04-09a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Flash report, ZeroFox researchers report on the latest developments from U.S. and Israeli combat operations against Iran and how Iran is responding.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

For the most up-to-date list of ZeroFox’s Intelligence Requirements, please visit:

https://cloud.zerofox.com/intelligence/advisories/14956

Link to Download

View the full report here

Key Findings

On April 7, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. However, just hours later, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) over Israeli targeting of Hezbollah, creating confusion as to whether the ceasefire remains in place and if both sides are even negotiating from the same framework.
Markets have almost certainly determined that the ceasefire marks the end of the conflict. However, such early setbacks have reduced the probability the truce will hold, and there is only a roughly even chance the agreed-upon ceasefire holds for the two-week duration and that a longer-term agreement can be reached in that time.
Israel’s willingness to abide by the terms agreed upon by the United States and Iran is one of several uncertainties regarding the ceasefire's success. Other uncertainties include the continued buildup of U.S. forces in the region, how willing the United States and its Gulf allies are to tolerate an Iranian-controlled SoH, assurances made to Iran against future aggression, and historical concerns over Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and support for regional proxies. One certainty is that the ceasefire's success very likely depends on the free flow of tanker traffic through the SoH.