Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Situational Updates

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Situational Updates

TLP: WHITE

In this briefing, ZeroFox Intelligence provides a situational awareness update on the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

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Scope Note

ZeroFox Intelligence is derived from a variety of sources, including—but not limited to—curated open-source accesses, vetted social media, proprietary data sources, and direct access to threat actors and groups through covert communication channels. Information relied upon to complete any report cannot always be independently verified. As such, ZeroFox applies rigorous analytic standards and tradecraft in accordance with best practices and includes caveat language and source citations to clearly identify the veracity of our Intelligence reporting and substantiate our assessments and recommendations. All sources used in this particular Intelligence product were identified prior to 12:00 PM (EST) on March 3, 2022; per cyber hygiene best practices, caution is advised when clicking on any third-party links.

Executive Summary

Despite suffering setbacks from pushback by a determined Ukrainian military and stiffer Western response than anticipated, Russia’s military escalation in Ukraine is unlikely to end soon, as Russia’s primary focus remains decapitating the current Ukrainian government.

Key Findings

• The Russian military escalation is largely being fought on four fronts and is proceeding more slowly than anticipated.
• The Ukrainian military response has been more robust than Russia anticipated, and the international response has been more aggressive than initially forecasted.
• Despite the military setbacks, forced regime change remains Russia’s priority, which will see the Ukrainian capital and largest city of Kiev engulfed in conflict.
• Despite early speculation that ransomware groups would begin voicing their support for the Russian government, most groups have long claimed to be politically neutral and interested only in financial gain. However, after initially expressing support for Russia and then walking back its statements, the Conti ransomware group experienced a very public downfall in the past week.