Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Situational Updates

TLP: WHITE

In this briefing, ZeroFox Intelligence provides a situational awareness update on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

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Scope Note

ZeroFox Intelligence is derived from a variety of sources, including—but not limited to—curated open-source accesses, vetted social media, proprietary data sources, and direct access to threat actors and groups through covert communication channels. Information relied upon to complete any report cannot always be independently verified. As such, ZeroFox applies rigorous analytic standards and tradecraft in accordance with best practices and includes caveat language and source citations to clearly identify the veracity of our Intelligence reporting and substantiate our assessments and recommendations. All sources used in this particular Intelligence product were identified prior to 2:00 PM (EDT) on April 14, 2022; per cyber hygiene best practices, caution is advised when clicking on any third-party links.

Executive Summary

Russia is preparing an offensive in southeastern Ukraine with the goal of conquering the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely seek to showcase a significant military victory at the Victory Day celebrations on May 9, 2022. U.S. President Joseph Biden committed to a new USD 800 million military assistance package to Ukraine that includes the first deliveries of U.S. artillery and conventional weapons. Mariupol is close to falling to Russian forces, but widespread claims of a large Ukrainian surrender and the Russian use of chemical weapons are unverified.