Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Situational Updates

Product Serial: B-2022-04-28a

TLP: WHITE

In this briefing, ZeroFox Intelligence provides a situational awareness update on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

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View the full brief here.

Scope Note

ZeroFox Intelligence is derived from a variety of sources, including—but not limited to—curated open-source accesses, vetted social media, proprietary data sources, and direct access to threat actors and groups through covert communication channels. Information relied upon to complete any report cannot always be independently verified. As such, ZeroFox applies rigorous analytic standards and tradecraft in accordance with best practices and includes caveat language and source citations to clearly identify the veracity of our Intelligence reporting and substantiate our assessments and recommendations. All sources used in this particular Intelligence product were identified prior to 2:00 PM (EDT) on April 28, 2022; per cyber hygiene best practices, caution is advised when clicking on any third-party links.

Executive Summary

Russian state-owned corporation Gazprom suspended natural gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria, citing the two countries’ refusal to pay for gas in Russian rubles. U.S. President Joseph Biden requested USD 33 billion in funding from Congress to support Ukraine, including USD 20 billion for military support. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Russia would respond to any perceived outside intervention in Ukraine, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that the conflict risks escalating into nuclear war. The Russian offensive in the Donbas has not achieved strategic breakthroughs and may lack the capacity to achieve the desired envelopment of Ukrainian forces.