Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Situational Updates

Product Serial: B-2022-05-05a

TLP: WHITE

In this briefing, ZeroFox Intelligence provides a situational awareness update on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

GEO

For the most up-to-date list of ZeroFox Threat Research’s Intelligence Requirements, please visit:

https://cloud.zerofox.com/alpha_team/advisories/14956

Link to Download

View the full brief here.

Scope Note

ZeroFox Intelligence is derived from a variety of sources, including—but not limited to—curated open-source accesses, vetted social media, proprietary data sources, and direct access to threat actors and groups through covert communication channels. Information relied upon to complete any report cannot always be independently verified. As such, ZeroFox applies rigorous analytic standards and tradecraft in accordance with best practices and includes caveat language and source citations to clearly identify the veracity of our Intelligence reporting and substantiate our assessments and recommendations. All sources used in this particular Intelligence product were identified prior to 2:00 PM (EDT) on May 5, 2022; per cyber hygiene best practices, caution is advised when clicking on any third-party links.

Executive Summary

Russia is unlikely to announce a general military mobilization during the May 9, 2022 Victory Day celebrations, as it would risk losing public support for the conflict and incur high military and economic costs. The sixth European Union sanctions package includes phasing out imports of Russian petroleum products by the end of 2022, but the proposed sanctions face opposition from multiple member states. Russian forces entered the besieged Azovstal metallurgical complex for the first time on May 4, 2022; one day after Ukraine completed an evacuation of 156 people trapped in the complex.