Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Situational Updates

Product Serial: B-2022-05-12a

TLP: WHITE

In this briefing, ZeroFox Intelligence provides a situational awareness update on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

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Scope Note

ZeroFox Intelligence is derived from a variety of sources, including—but not limited to—curated open-source accesses, vetted social media, proprietary data sources, and direct access to threat actors and groups through covert communication channels. Information relied upon to complete any report cannot always be independently verified. As such, ZeroFox applies rigorous analytic standards and tradecraft in accordance with best practices and includes caveat language and source citations to clearly identify the veracity of our Intelligence reporting and substantiate our assessments and recommendations. All sources used in this particular Intelligence product were identified prior to 12:00 PM (EDT) on May 12, 2022; per cyber hygiene best practices, caution is advised when clicking on any third-party links.

Executive Summary

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not declare war on Ukraine or announce a general mobilization during his May 9, 2022, Victory Day speech. However, U.S. intelligence officials still believe that he intends to again expand the war beyond the Donbas if the Russian military’s ongoing offensive is successful. Russian state-owned gas corporation Gazprom announced sanctions against Yamal pipeline operators on May 11, 2022, that will stop gas from flowing to European customers through the pipeline. The Russia-installed military-civilian administration in the Kherson region announced their intent to join Russia, which suggests that a regional independence referendum is imminent.