Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Situational Updates

Product Serial: B-2022-05-19a

TLP: WHITE

In this briefing, ZeroFox Intelligence provides a situational awareness update on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

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Scope Note

ZeroFox Intelligence is derived from a variety of sources, including—but not limited to—curated open-source accesses, vetted social media, proprietary data sources, and direct access to threat actors and groups through covert communication channels. Information relied upon to complete any report cannot always be independently verified. As such, ZeroFox applies rigorous analytic standards and tradecraft in accordance with best practices and includes caveat language and source citations to clearly identify the veracity of our Intelligence reporting and substantiate our assessments and recommendations. All sources used in this particular Intelligence product were identified prior to 12:00 PM (EDT) on May 19, 2022; per cyber hygiene best practices, caution is advised when clicking on any third-party links.

Executive Summary

The Russian Defense Ministry said that 1,730 Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol’s Azovstal steel plant have left the complex since evacuations began on May 16, 2022. It is unclear how a prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia will proceed, and some evacuees will likely face criminal proceedings in Russia on charges of association with the Azov Battalion. Sweden and Finland formally submitted their applications for NATO membership on May 18, 2022, but their quick approval may be held up by Turkish opposition. The first war crimes trial for a captured Russian soldier began in Kyiv on May 13, 2022, and the soldier has since pleaded guilty to charges of killing a civilian.