Anticipated Ramifications of Expanded NATO Membership

Product Serial: B-2022-05-26a

TLP: WHITE

In this briefing, ZeroFox Intelligence provides an analysis of the anticipated ramifications of expanded NATO membership.

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Executive Summary

On May 18, 2022, Finland and Sweden both formally submitted their applications to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at its headquarters in Brussels; their successful ascension would double the length of NATO’s border with Russia. Both countries will now enter a formal application process that requires all NATO members' approval. The process could take six to 12 months. NATO members, led by the United States and the United Kingdom, have promised to protect Finland and Sweden during the application process. Russia threatened immediate retaliation, including unspecified military-technical measures over the applications. NATO enlargement was cited as one of the primary reasons for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and Russia is opposed to the bloc gaining new members, particularly along its 800-mile border with Finland. Russia could use military, economic, political, or cyber measures to decentivize non-NATO members from joining the military alliance.