Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Situational Updates

Product Serial: B-2022-05-26b

TLP: WHITE

In this briefing, ZeroFox Intelligence provides a situational awareness update on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

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Scope Note

ZeroFox Intelligence is derived from a variety of sources, including—but not limited to—curated open-source accesses, vetted social media, proprietary data sources, and direct access to threat actors and groups through covert communication channels. Information relied upon to complete any report cannot always be independently verified. As such, ZeroFox applies rigorous analytic standards and tradecraft in accordance with best practices and includes caveat language and source citations to clearly identify the veracity of our Intelligence reporting and substantiate our assessments and recommendations. All sources used in this particular Intelligence product were identified prior to 12:00 PM (EDT) on May 26, 2022; per cyber hygiene best practices, caution is advised when clicking on any third-party links.

Executive Summary

The Russia-enforced blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast has prevented Ukraine from exporting an estimated 20 million tons of grain, and European Union (EU)-proposed plans to circumvent the blockade face significant short-term obstacles. Ukrainian and Russian leaders dismissed an Italian peace proposal, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky compared suggestions that Ukraine give up Crimea to the appeasement of Nazi Germany. Russian forces in the Donbas are likely close to surrounding Severodonetsk and have successfully broken Ukrainian lines around Popasna.