European Gas Politics

Product Serial: B-2022-07-20a

TLP: WHITE

In this briefing, ZeroFox Intelligence discusses the uncertainty around Russia resuming natural gas exports to Germany at normal levels through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline once annual maintenance is complete.

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Executive Summary

Europe is currently waiting to see if natural gas exports via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany resume on July 21, 2022, and at what levels. The pipeline shuts down for 10 days every year for annual maintenance but Europe fears the shutdown will last longer due to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Russia is retaliating against European support for Ukraine by cutting back on contracted volumes of natural gas that Russia supplies to Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin made it clear he aims to limit Europe’s ability to store gas supplies ahead of the winter, thus driving up prices that will cause economic hardship and political discontent to weaken Europe’s resolve to back Ukraine.

Ahead of the pipeline closure, Russia has been escalating its retaliatory response against NATO and European Union (EU) members. Russia’s primary weapon is cutting off energy supplies, but they are also continuing with confrontational military exercises in tandem with low-scale cyber actions likely carried out by pro-Russian threat actors against other EU and NATO members. Despite the outcome of the pipeline issue, Russia is highly likely to continue using energy supplies as the key retaliatory measure against European support for Ukraine. This could lead to energy rationing and higher prices that make conducting business in Europe difficult. It may also lead to social unrest in addition to wider political and economic issues that weaken Europe.