China-Taiwan Conflict: Cyber Possibilities

Product Serial: B-2022-10-14a

TLP:CLEAR

In this brief, ZeroFox Intelligence discusses the increasing conflict between China and Taiwan while offering recommendations to organizations with a presence in Taiwan.

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Scope Note

ZeroFox Intelligence is derived from a variety of sources, including—but not limited to—curated open-source accesses, vetted social media, proprietary data sources, and direct access to threat actors and groups through covert communication channels. Information relied upon to complete any report cannot always be independently verified. As such, ZeroFox applies rigorous analytic standards and tradecraft in accordance with best practices and includes caveat language and source citations to clearly identify the veracity of our Intelligence reporting and substantiate our assessments and recommendations. All sources used in this particular Intelligence product were identified prior to 3:00 PM (EDT) on October 5, 2022; per cyber hygiene best practices, caution is advised when clicking on any third-party links.

Executive Summary

The potential for material conflict between China and Taiwan has risen in recent years. The language of the so-called 1992 Consensus—which provided a conceptual framework for a nominally-unified China while allowing the mainland and its island neighbor to govern themselves autonomously—has been increasingly undermined by rhetoric from the leadership of both countries. Chinese President Xi Jinping has named "reunification" of the two lands among China's priorities, while President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan has explicitly denied that her country is a territory of the mainland. Additionally, China has recently ignored a historically respected "median" running through the Strait of Taiwan when deploying warships there. Displays of military readiness notwithstanding, economic disincentives—most notably China's reliance on Taiwanese microchip technology—make a physical invasion of Taiwan a less likely, near-term manifestation of this conflict than a cyber campaign targeting strategically-sensitive Taiwanese assets.