ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - Implications of Upcoming Turkish Presidential and Parliamentary Elections

Product Serial: F-2023-05-10b

TLP:CLEAR

In this flash report, ZeroFox Intelligence provides an analysis of Turkey’s upcoming national elections for its presidency and the entire 600-seat parliament on May 14, 2023. Long-time leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who previously served as prime minister for 11 years, is seeking his third five-year term as president. However, his primary opponent is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), who is backed by a rare coalition of five other opposition parties known as the Nation Alliance or Table of Six.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

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Scope Note

ZeroFox Intelligence is derived from a variety of sources, including—but not limited to—curated open-source accesses, vetted social media, proprietary data sources, and direct access to threat actors and groups through covert communication channels. Information relied upon to complete any report cannot always be independently verified. As such, ZeroFox applies rigorous analytic standards and tradecraft in accordance with best practices and includes caveat language and source citations to clearly identify the veracity of our Intelligence reporting and substantiate our assessments and recommendations. All sources used in this particular Intelligence product were identified prior to 9:00 AM (EDT) on May 9, 2023; per cyber hygiene best practices, caution is advised when clicking on any third-party links.

Key Findings

On May 14, Turkey will hold national elections for its presidency and the entire 600-seat parliament. Long-time leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who previously served as prime minister for 11 years, is seeking his third five-year term as president. His primary opponent is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), who is backed by a rare coalition of five other opposition parties known as the Nation Alliance or Table of Six. President Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) is seeking to retain its governing position within parliament and has a history of challenging election results that do not go their way. A loss for Erdogan could see efforts to overturn the election results, which could lead to social unrest.

Kilicdaroglu has maintained a small but consistent lead over Erdogan in opinion polls. Erdogan’s AKP party seems poised to lose seats in parliament, though it may remain the single largest party. A Kilicdaroglu victory will likely see positive economic developments for businesses operating in Turkey that have spent years battling record inflation—sometimes over 100 percent—and a consistently weakened local currency. However, multinational firms hoping for a transition back towards the West and away from Russia will likely be disappointed, as there is little difference between the two potential leaders’ attitudes towards Russia.