ZeroFox Intelligence June 2023 Geopolitical Brief

ZeroFox Intelligence Geopolitical Brief for June 2023

Product Serial: B-2023-06-02a

TLP:CLEAR

In this ZeroFox Intelligence Geopolitical Brief for June 2023, the primary talking point is western containment efforts related to China and Chinese policy vis-à-vis western business interests. The issue has global relevance, with both sides courting new and improved relationships, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific region. The start of Ukraine's counteroffensive is the key topic in Europe, along with noteworthy upcoming elections. In Latin America, the political impact of skyrocketing crime rates and elections is discussed. Potential social unrest and an upcoming BRICS summit are key issues in Africa, while Israeli political and protest developments are highlighted in the Middle East. Asia is also a mix of predicted episodes of social unrest and uncertain electoral outcomes.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical

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Key Findings

• Social unrest is possible in NIgeria where fuel subsidies will be removed in the near future.
• Crime has emerged as a key political issue in Latin America, especially in places accustomed to low crime rates like Chile, Ecuador, and Costa Rica. “Tough on crime” policies in places like El Salvador are also gaining traction across the region.
• An unstable coalition government that maintains the existing power structures of the monarchy and the military while limiting Thailand's economic growth is likely but not guaranteed.
• Power outages leading to social unrest are likely in South Africa just ahead of a key summit in August 2023. ● Spain called snap elections for July 2023 to keep the ruling Socialists in power.
• Western firms with key domestic competitors in technology and financial services are likely to experience a wider crackdown from China in response to Western trade restrictions.
• The risk of social unrest during the Champions League Final in Istanbul is less following the re-election of President Erdogan.
• Expect a wave of pro-business decrees in Ecuador before elections in August 2023, after which a less pro-Western government is likely.
• Fighting in the geographically important state of Sudan is likely until a power-sharing agreement that rules out democracy is in place.
• Unrest that spiked and ended in Pakistan is likely to resurface again in 2023.
• China is increasingly concerned with indebted nations’ ability to repay loans but also has its own domestic debt problem that risks spiraling.