ZeroFox Intelligence Geopolitical Brief for July 2023

Product Serial: B-2023-06-30a

TLP:CLEAR

In this ZeroFox Intelligence Geopolitical Brief for July 2023, the primary topic is the global implications of Ukraine's counteroffensive in Russia, which include further supply chain disruptions if Russian economic output is restricted and more cyber attacks ahead of the NATO summit. Disruptive protests, including those in France as well as transportation strikes, are also discussed in the Europe section. Latin America has a series of protests upcoming that are occurring alongside a regionwide crime wave that is occupying voter concerns. In Asia, the primary concern remains the geopolitical dispute between Western nations and China. China appears to have laid the groundwork to further punish companies that comply with Western sanctions. In the Middle East, developments regarding possible judicial reforms in Israel as well as the worst violence in decades in the West Bank are discussed. In Africa, there is a high risk of social unrest, and the major economies of Nigeria and Kenya are preparing to raise taxes on the middle class.

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Geopolitical and Physical GEO

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Key Findings

Several major African countries, including Kenya and Nigeria, are at major risk for widespread protests over the cost of living in July 2023.
In France, expect continued acts of daytime protests followed by nighttime acts of vandalism over police violence in cities nationwide to continue, possibly peaking on the weekend of July 1-2.
Indefinite protests are likely by mid-July in Thailand if the military blocks formation of a new government.
Violence between Israelis and Palestinians is likely to continue in July after reaching heights not seen in years.
Sudan's military is slowly losing ground to a rival militia force, which could worsen security across east Africa.
Expect a series of disruptive transportation strikes in Europe to coincide with the busy summer travel season.
Western companies operating in China will see continued efforts to steal trade secrets.
Protesters with a history of overthrowing governments will descend on Lima, Peru, in mid-July.
Argentina, Guatemala, and Ecuador have key elections in the coming weeks; crime and the economy are the primary issues.
A pan-African payment system is increasingly being adopted by member states that could help increase trade and reduce U.S. dollar reliance.
Spain holds consequential snap elections that could lead to weeks of coalition talks or further elections.
The Women’s World Cup in Australia and New Zealand runs from July to August.
A more forceful response from China to lift Western trade sanctions will likely target the private sector.
Russian-backed threat actors have stepped up their attacks against Ukraine’s Western backers and will likely escalate during the NATO summit.