ZeroFox Intelligence Geopolitical Brief for September 2023

Product Serial: B-2023-09-01a

TLP:CLEAR

In this ZeroFox Intelligence Geopolitical Brief for September 2023, ZeroFox geopolitical researchers cover spreading insecurity and democratic backsliding after another coup at the end of August. With Delhi and Jakarta hosting the G-20 and ASEAN summits in quick succession, world leaders have their last opportunity to meet together in 2023. Following developments at the G-7 and BRICS meetings in August, there could be more supply chain rearrangements in particular. Ukrainian forces are finally seeing some progress in their counteroffensive. Both Europe and Latin America are preparing for a slew of fall elections that will have implications for business operations in Europe and physical security in Latin America.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

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Key Findings

The G20 summit in India could have major implications for global trade, as it will host members from both the BRICS and G7.
Another former French colony experienced a coup, a worrying trend of instability.
Violence is likely to escalate in Niger and its neighbors after its coup leaders remained in power.
After Niger, insecurity will likely worsen in Benin and Togo first before threatening Ghana and Ivory Coast.
India will likely continue export bans for key food commodities, driving up food prices through 2024.
Thailand’s new government will be weak and possibly short-lived after the liberal leaders formed a coalition with the powerful military, angering progressive activists who voted for them.
Protests and violence linked to Argentina’s October elections are likely.
BRICS enlargements show there is strong support for an alternative to the U.S.-led economic order, but expect few meaningful challenges to the system in the short term.
Protests against Japan related to releasing water from the Fukushima nuclear plant are likely for years.
Brazil may see pro-Bolsonaro acts of violence on Independence Day.
Insecurity in Sudan and Ethiopia is likely to worsen in September.
European countries are aiming to ban Quran burnings to avoid reprisal attacks and poor geopolitical relations with the Muslim world.
By early September, the leading candidates for Mexico 2024 elections will be known and campaigning will begin.
The tough-on-crime policies of El Salvador are being pushed elsewhere in Latin America but are unlikely to be as successful.
Protests over Israel’s judicial reform could recommence in mid-September.