ZeroFox Intelligence – Eastern Europe Regional Assessment

Product Serial: A-2023-09-07a

TLP:CLEAR

In this regional assessment, ZeroFox researchers establish the key geopolitical and security risks currently impacting Eastern Europe, an overview of some of the major issues facing the region, and provide forward-looking statements on how these will likely impact the region in the coming months.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

For the most up-to-date list of ZeroFox’s Intelligence Requirements, please visit:

https://cloud.zerofox.com/intelligence/advisories/14956

View the full report here.

Key Findings

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is making slow gains and will likely continue until October.
The domestic political climates in the United States and Europe in 2024 will largely determine the fate of economic and military aid to Ukraine.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine on the Black Sea will remain high for the foreseeable future.
Foreign businesses with assets in Russia risk nationalization. Russia is more likely to seize the assets of companies that have threatened to leave the country.
The relocation of Wagner forces to Belarus raised tensions with the Baltics and Poland. The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin complicates the future of this conflict.
As in most of Europe, the far right is on the rise in eastern Europe—most notably in Poland and Hungary.
Industries vital to Ukraine’s reconstruction will thrive in the years to come, as will defense and cybersecurity firms across eastern Europe.