ZeroFox Intelligence November 2023 Geopolitical Brief

Product Serial: B-2023-10-27a

TLP:CLEAR

In this ZeroFox Intelligence Geopolitical Brief for November 2023, the war in Gaza is the primary topic. There is potential for the conflict to spread across the Middle East and disrupt energy supply chains. The conflict is also harming the sense of security in Europe, where travel restrictions, protests, and an escalation in terror attacks are likely through November. November 2023 will also likely see further developments in retaliatory trade restrictions between the U.S. and China. Both states have announced new restrictions due to go into place before 2024, which will harm global trade and pose added security threats for multinationals in China. There are also key elections in India, Argentina, and the Netherlands next month.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

For the most up-to-date list of ZeroFox’s Intelligence Requirements, please visit:

https://cloud.zerofox.com/intelligence/advisories/14956

Link to Download

View the full report here.

Key Findings

European states are on high alert for violent antisemitic and Islamophobic attacks inspired by events in Gaza.
Centrist parties with well-established political records look set to remain in power in the Netherlands.
October 2023 saw a number of European Union (EU) and U.S.-inspired trade restrictions on technology transfers to China.
Chinese economic and trade retaliation is likely in response.
Anti-government protests and roadblocks will remain constant threats in Guatemala until January 2024 at least.
Mozambique’s mid-October local elections have still not been decided due to blatant government fraud. Challenges to elections in Mozambique are likely during the 2024 general elections, as well as in neighboring South Africa, where post-independence political parties have lost ground.
A unified opposition candidate in Venezuela presents risks to a recently-enacted political agreement.
Three upcoming weeks of political campaigning in Argentina could lead to social unrest.
India has five state elections that have political significance ahead of general elections in 2024.
Iran will likely utilize its proxy groups across the Middle East to target U.S. and Israeli interests once the ground incursion into Gaza begins.
A Kenyan and UN force in Haiti by January 2024 looks certain.
Foreign nationals in China face added security risks after new U.S.-led trade restrictions were announced.
Elections in Madagascar were pushed back to later in November due to violent protests.
Social unrest and violence are possible during Liberia’s second-round elections.