ZeroFox Intelligence December 2023 Geopolitical Brief

Product Serial: B-2023-12-01a

TLP:CLEAR

In this geopolitical brief for December 2023, ZeroFox researchers cover the resumption of hostilities between Israel and Hamas as the primary item. Israel will need to balance calls for limited civilian casualties with its efforts to eliminate the security threat coming from Gaza. An analysis of other potential conflict zones is also discussed, notably between Venezuela and Guyana and another involving Serbia and Kosovo. Elections are the other key global issue. December 2023 has a number of election-related developments ahead of 2024, which will host a number of consequential elections, including those in India, Taiwan, Russia, the U.S., the UK, and elsewhere.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

For the most up-to-date list of ZeroFox’s Intelligence Requirements, please visit:

https://cloud.zerofox.com/intelligence/advisories/14956

Link to Download

View the full report here.

Key Findings

The United States and Europe are planning new public-private investments across the continent.
Israel’s incursion into Gaza will continue through December.
The failure of Taiwan’s opposition parties to unite behind one candidate likely means relations with mainland China will worsen.
Forming a new government in the Netherlands will likely take months, and any new government is likely to be short-lived.
Venezuela is holding a referendum in December that could lead to an invasion of neighboring Guyana.
International pressure on Israel to contain collateral damage during its incursion in Gaza will make it more difficult to eliminate the threat posed by Hamas.
A constitutional referendum in Chile is likely to fail, leaving the old condition in place for the foreseeable future.
Bangladesh will likely see constant protests in the run-up to elections in January that could impact the wider region, with both Pakistan and India due to hold elections shortly thereafter.
The results of elections in the DRC will have consequences for trade relations between the United States and China, with both nations eager to control valuable supplies of rare-earth metals critical to the energy transition.
Russia will likely escalate its aerial campaign targeting Ukrainian infrastructure in the coming months, and peace talks remain unlikely in the short term.
Re-run local elections in Mozambique could have wider implications if they dent ruling party support ahead of general elections in 2024 and lead to a constant state of social unrest.
Trade disputes between Ukraine and its neighbors risk running into 2024 and further dampening support for their war with Russia.
Spain is likely to see anti-government protests through 2024 over an amnesty offered to Catalan separatists, which most of the population are against.