ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - December 16, 2023

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - December 16, 2023

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• Al Qaeda identifies West Africa as Key Operating Base in New Statement
• COVID-19 Cases Increase in Southeast Asia
• European Union Votes to Open Accession Talks With Ukraine and Moldova

Al Qaeda identifies West Africa as Key Operating Base in New Statement

On December 13, 2023, Iyad ag Ghali, the leader of al-Qaeda's (AQ) most effective branch, Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), announced its key operations would be targeting the military coup leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Ghali also said Russia's Wagner paramilitary grouping, who backs the coup leaders, particularly in Mali, would be their targets. If JNIM is able to control a greater share of government-held land in southern Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, they will likely expand into the more economically important west African states of Ghana and Ivory Coast, as well as Benin and Togo, which are already seeing an increase in attacks in the north. While JNIM and, to a lesser extent, the Islamic State (IS) have steadily been gaining territory in the region for years, the statement is significant because it highlights a shift in focus from the entirety of AQ and presents a wider risk to West Africa. It is also a continuation of a trend since a U.S.-backed coalition helped route IS and AQ from their traditional seats of power in Iraq and Syria, as well as in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where the Taliban maintain a greater presence. AQ and IS have found room for growth in parts of Africa that are currently unavailable in the Middle East. Their expansion has led to political instability, where coup leaders in Mali, Burkina, and Niger have cited the incumbent governments inability to halt jihadist attacks as their primary reason for taking power. The security vacuums have only worsened since the coups, and there is a high likelihood that attacks will spread further across the region.

COVID-19 Cases Increase in Southeast Asia

Governments across Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines, are bringing back measures to control an increase in respiratory infections such as COVID-19. The new measures include installing temperature scanners at airports and encouraging people to wear masks. COVID cases in Singapore surged to 32,035 in the week ended on December 2, up significantly from the previous week of just over 22,000. Meanwhile, the number of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia jumped to 6,796 during the same period, up from 3,626 in the previous week. In Indonesia, the Health Ministry issued a circular on December 8, 2023, calling for vigilance on the emerging increase in cases in neighboring countries and advising Indonesians to postpone traveling to these areas to slow the spread of COVID-19. The latest spike in COVID-19 cases could be due to many factors, such as year-end travel, the festive season, and waning population immunity. However, there is no indication that the variants circulating are more transmissible or cause more severe disease because the majority of detected variants are still Omicron variants.

European Union Votes to Open Accession Talks With Ukraine and Moldova

On December 14, 2023, the European Union voted to begin accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, and also granted Georgia EU candidate status. This development marks a significant victory for Ukraine; President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted Ukraine's application to join the EU shortly after Russia's 2022 invasion. The decision will also bolster Moldovan President Maia Sandu's status as her pro-EU government attempts to shift the country away from Russian influence. Officials did not specify when talks would begin, however, they will likely commence in the coming months. Hungarian opposition to negotiations with Ukraine almost derailed the decision. All EU membership proposals must be adopted unanimously; Hungary insisted on the morning of December 14 it would veto opening accession talks with Ukraine, arguing the country was not ready to join the bloc. However, Hungarian President Viktor Orban decided to abstain from the vote to allow consensus from the other 26 EU members. In a Facebook post after the decision, Orban stated "Ukraine is ill prepared . . .  Hungary decided that if the 26 decide to do so, they should go their own way. Hungary does not want to share in this bad decision, and therefore Hungary has stayed away from the decision today.”