ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Serbian Elections - A Domestic and Foreign Analysis

Product Serial: B-2023-12-15a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Intelligence Brief, ZeroFox geopolitical researchers analyze the upcoming Serbian elections, including expected outcomes and significant events that have occurred in the lead-up to the elections.

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Executive Summary

Serbia is expected to hold a parliamentary election on December 17, 2023, to choose the members of its legislative body, the National Assembly. It is likely the leaders of the current ruling coalition, the Srpska Napredna Stranka’s (the Serbian Progressive Party or SNS), will obtain approximately 40 percent of the vote—enough to remain the leading political force. It is almost certain that the upcoming elections will be the greatest threat to SNS’ rule since it obtained power in 2012.
The most significant events leading up to the election in terms of domestic policy were three mass shootings in May 2023. The shootings led to over four months of opposition protests and the creation of the Srbija Protiv Nasilja (Serbia Against Violence or SPN) coalition, which is currently SNS’ largest political opponent. A strong performance by opposition parties in the upcoming elections could limit President Vučić’s overall power and lead to compromises in domestic policies in the near to short term.
In terms of foreign policy, tensions with Kosovo and Serbia balancing its relationship between the European Union (EU) and Russia have dominated the debate. This is unlikely to shift in the short to medium term. Serbia will highly likely continue carrying out limited EU-access reforms while maintaining strong political links to Russia and China. ZeroFox assesses that Serbia will highly likely continue to use political pressure to protect its ethnic minority in Kosovo and keep the Kosovo state within its sphere of influence.