ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - December 28, 2023

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - December 28, 2023

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• India Deploys Warships After Cargo Vessel Struck near Veraval
• Ethiopia Defaults on Loan
• European Union Preparing Back-up Options for Ukraine Aid

India Deploys Warships After Cargo Vessel Struck near Veraval

On December 23, 2023, a one-way attack drone struck an Israel-linked cargo tanker in the Indian Ocean roughly 200 nautical miles southwest of the coastal city of Veraval in Gujarat state. No injuries were reported. The ship sustained limited damage and was reported to be taking on a small amount of water. The United States has blamed Iran for the incident, though Tehran denied involvement. The strike occurred within the operational range of Iranian attack drones, which are believed capable of traveling up to 1,000 kilometers (roughly 620 miles). It comes amid increased targeting of cargo ships in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. India’s Navy has deployed three guided missile destroyers to the area to deter other potential threats. It is unclear if the strike was a one-off incident or if it signals a widening of targets by Iranian proxies in the region.

Ethiopia Defaults on Loan

On December 26, 2023, Ethiopia defaulted on a USD 33 million bond payment, being the third country on the continent to default over a 3-year period. Ethiopian officials did not comment on the default, but experts contend that the lack of payment signifies difficult economic conditions in the country amid civil conflict and global shocks due to the Russia-Ukraine war and the COVID-19 pandemic. The default caused Ethiopia's credit rating to be downgraded, likely making it a less attractive target for further financial opportunities. Recent negotiations with Chinese and Ethiopian officials to restructure a USD 1 billion loan were successful, but talks with other countries and organizations to restructure Ethiopia's debt have stalled. Zambia and Ghana also recently defaulted on loans and are undergoing extensive restructuring procedures to pay off debts.

European Union Preparing Back-up Options for Ukraine Aid

On December 26, 2023, the Financial Times reported the European Union is preparing multiple backup plans to provide aid to Ukraine that would not require approval from Hungary. Hungarian President Viktor Orban recently blocked a EUR 50 billion aid package that required the unanimous approval of member states. EU leaders will meet at a summit on February 1, 2024, where they resume discussions on various aid options for Ukraine. The 26 member states that support the original EUR 50 package will attempt to pressure Hungary into approving the measure. If Hungary remains obstinate, the remaining member states then plan to enact alternative plans.