ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Cyber, Military, and Economic Coercion Targeting Taiwan Elections

Product Serial: B-2024-01-10a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Intelligence Brief, ZeroFox geopolitical researchers cover various aspects of the upcoming elections in Taiwan on January 13, 2024, that could be subject to coercive elements.

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Geopolitical and Physical GEO

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Executive Summary

Taiwan holds general elections to determine the composition of its 113-seat national legislature (Yuan) and elect a president on January 13, 2024. Opposition parties will likely win the most votes, but the failure of the two main opposition parties to unify around a joint presidential ticket means the incumbent party could win the presidency. Ahead of the election, China has been escalating its military, economic, and cyber coercion in support of opposition candidates. Military maneuvers, in particular, will increase in the immediate aftermath of the election if the ruling party wins. Regardless of the election results, China is likely to continue its activities, which are designed to push Taiwan away from its military and economic alliances with the United States and closer to mainland China.