ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - January 20, 2024

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - January 20, 2024

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• Pakistan Launches Retaliatory Strikes Inside Iran
• Ukraine Strikes Oil Refinery in St. Petersburg, Russia
• Pace of Grain Exports in Ukraine Returns to Near Pre-War Levels

Pakistan Launches Retaliatory Strikes Inside Iran

On January 18, Pakistan launched strikes inside Iran, targeting a Pakistani separatist group, a day after Iran launched strikes on the positions of an Iranian militant group inside Pakistan. Pakistan targeted positions reportedly belonging to the Baluch Liberation Army (BLA), which fights for an independent state in the Baluchistan region of Pakistan. The BLA claimed they would step up attacks against Pakistan in response to the attacks. BLA have increased their targeting in recent years and recently began employing female suicide bombers. An increase in BLA attacks inside Pakistan could come ahead of the February 8 elections. While further tit-for-tat attacks inside Iran and Pakistan are possible, a major military escalation between the two sides is unlikely.

Ukraine Strikes Oil Refinery in St. Petersburg, Russia

On the night of January 17 to 18, several Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery in St Petersburg, Russia - about 900 kilometers (559 miles) from Ukraine. It marks both the furthest and northernmost Ukrainian strike on Russian territory; previously, Ukrainian strikes had only reached as far as Pskov Oblast, located about 700 kilometers (435 miles) from Ukraine. Representative of Ukrainian military intelligence Andriy Yusov said the strike indicates a "new quality" of Ukrainian weapons. The incident shows Ukraine is now capable of striking Russia's second-most important city, which undoubtedly brought to light the reality of the war to St. Petersburg's population of 5.5 million.

Pace of Grain Exports in Ukraine Returns to Near Pre-War Levels

On January 17, the president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation Leonid Kozachenko told Ukrainian Radio that Ukraine's grain corridor on the Black Sea has nearly restored pre-war grain shipping capacities. Kozachenko noted Ukraine now ships between 7.5 - 8 million tons of grain per month through the corridor. According to Kozachenko, insurance costs have also decreased from a peak of seven percent of cargo value to current rates of 1.5 percent.