ZeroFox Intelligence February 2024 Geopolitical Brief

Product Serial: B-2024-02-01a

TLP:CLEAR

In this monthly brief, ZeroFox researchers discuss how farmer protests in Europe are spreading and are likely to remain politically relevant until at least the June 2024 EU-wide elections. In the Middle East, a U.S. military response against Iranian interests is highly likely, while a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas appears probable. There are a number of notable elections in February, with the biggest in Indonesia likely to go to a run-off, while the prospect of social unrest related to the Pakistani elections is extremely high. Two new measures should concern financial services firms with operations in China, including a corruption crackdown on the finance sector and a new national security law in Hong Kong with an emphasis on dissent and foreign influence.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

For the most up-to-date list of ZeroFox’s Intelligence Requirements, please visit:

https://cloud.zerofox.com/intelligence/advisories/14956

Link to Download

View the full report here.

Key Findings

The direct U.S. targeting of Iranian positions in February 2024 is almost certain.
A U.S. cyber response that aims to cut weapons and communications between Iran and its proxies is also possible.
This increases the possibility of a wider Middle East war, but that prospect still remains uncertain.
Supply chain disruptions linked to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are likely to reach a nadir ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday in February 2024.
China’s corruption crackdown on the finance sector could remove some of the few remaining avenues for Western companies to run profitable businesses inside China.
Expect a security crackdown on organized crime and drug trafficking in Latin America.
There is a high risk of terrorist attacks and disruptive protests linked to Pakistan’s February general elections.
However, the strong backing that presidential frontrunner Nawaz Sharif has from the powerful military will likely secure his electoral victory.
Ukraine demonstrated new targeting capabilities in its war against Russia but continues to struggle with ammunition shortages.
Domestic opposition in Israel against the government continues to grow as Hamas military capabilities remain largely intact.
Farmer protests could worsen in Europe ahead of key EU-wide elections in June 2024.
Expect a weakening of EU environmental legislation and further concessions to agriculture.
A second-round presidential election is the most likely outcome of the Indonesian presidential elections.
A contentious political agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland is likely to go ahead because there are other competing issues in the region, and all the major political opponents are too weak to respond.
A one to two-month ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war looks possible in February.