ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - February 3, 2024

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - February 3, 2024

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• EU Naval Mission to Protect Shipping in the Red Sea Will Launch by February
• China Changes Civil Aviation Flight Paths, Reducing Taiwan's Ability to Respond to an Invasion
• Ethiopian Official Reports Starvation in Tigray and Amhara Regions

EU Naval Mission to Protect Shipping in the Red Sea Will Launch by February

The European Union is hoping to launch a naval mission tasked with protecting commercial shipping in the Red Sea from Houthi missile attacks by February 19, 2024. Five countries—Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, and Italy—have so far pledged to join the effort, known as Aspides, with either Greece or France likely to play a leadership role. Belgium and Germany must seek approval from their respective legislatures before their membership becomes official, although leaders appear optimistic they have the necessary support. Additional countries may join as organizers finalize details of the initiative. Warships deployed to the Red Sea as part of the effort will be tasked strictly with intercepting incoming missiles, rather than directly striking Houthi positions as the United States and United Kingdom have been doing in recent weeks. The EU claims that Aspides will coordinate with the US-led task force currently playing a similar role in the Red Sea. EU countries likely sought to form their own initiative, rather than join the US-led one, to distance themselves from accusations of protecting Israeli interests amidst the ongoing campaign in Gaza.

China Changes Civil Aviation Flight Paths, Reducing Taiwan's Ability to Respond to an Invasion

On January 30, 2024, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) announced it was unilaterally changing its civil aviation routes near the sensitive median line in the Taiwan Strait. China’s move angered Taiwan, which accused China of reneging on a 2015 agreement to keep Chinese civilian aircraft six nautical miles to the west of the Strait. The cancellation of the six-nautical-mile offset measure is China's latest move to limit Taiwan’s air defense capacity. China's move would make it easier to facilitate warplane crossovers in any future conflict between China and Taiwan and limit the response time of Taiwan's air force in the event of an attack on Taiwan. The change is likely tied to the recent Taiwan elections, which saw the anti-China candidate win.

Ethiopian Official Reports Starvation in Tigray and Amhara Regions

On January 31, 2024, an Ethiopian official announced that more than 370 people have died due to starvation in the northern Tigray and Amhara regions since at least July 2023, but hunger-related deaths are expected to be much higher. The Horn of Africa has experienced its worst drought in decades, resulting in food scarcity and lower agricultural outputs. Conflict in the Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia regions have likely decreased agricultural production as well. Tensions have occurred between Ethiopia and the United States over a lack of humanitarian aid access to the affected regions after the US temporarily halted aid over corruption allegations. Experts contend that famine-like conditions are expected to continue to affect northern Ethiopia for much of 2024.