ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Threat Actors Exacerbate Divisions Ahead of Pakistan Elections

Product Serial: B-2024-02-05a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Intelligence Brief, ZeroFox geopolitical researchers analyze the upcoming Pakistan elections, including expected outcomes and significant events that have occurred in the lead-up to the elections.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

For the most up-to-date list of ZeroFox’s Intelligence Requirements, please visit:

https://cloud.zerofox.com/intelligence/advisories/14956

Link to Download

View the full report here.

Executive Summary

What was originally going to be a tight November 2023 general election now looks settled in February 2024. During the delay, the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif managed to nullify the electoral threat posed by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who at the time looked to be the most likely winner.
Backed by the powerful military, the government launched a crackdown on Khan and his supporters, which has left Khan isolated in jail while his party has languished politically.
With both the political status quo and the military on the same side, expect a more predictable economic and foreign policy position from Pakistan.
These well-laid plans could, however, unravel because of the dual threat of social unrest posed by Khan as well as the elevated risk of terrorism inside Pakistan. If either of those issues is worse than anticipated, Pakistan could become even more unstable.
Cyber threat actors appear to be working diligently to exacerbate these risks.