ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - February 8, 2024

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - February 8, 2024

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• Indian Farmers to Lead Tractor March on New Delhi, Call for Nationwide Strike
• Violence Escalates ahead of Pakistan General Elections
• Spanish Farmers Protests Expected to Drastically Increase along with Truckers Strike

Indian Farmers to Lead Tractor March on New Delhi, Call for Nationwide Strike

Numerous Indian farmers’ unions are planning labor agitation throughout mid-February to protest government policies including a failure to impose a minimum set price for agricultural goods. On February 13, farmers from around 200 unions will embark on a Tractor March to New Delhi. Protesters will depart from all over India, with slow-roll blockades possible along the myriad routes. Participants will assemble at Jantar Mantar Observatory where they will hold a sit-in that organizers claim could last for an unspecified long duration. A well-attended sit-in could cause significant disruptions throughout the city given Jantar Mantar’s central location. On February 16, farmers not participating in the Tractor March will initiate a general strike with possible participation from transporter and trader unions as well. During the strike, protesters may hold rallies in major cities. Organizers are threatening a return to the farmers’ protests of 2020-21, which saw tens of thousands of protesters blockade New Delhi and other cities to demand the repeal of three controversial farming laws. The current movement is unlikely to immediately attract similar participation but could gain momentum if it attracts sufficient coverage.

Violence Escalates ahead of Pakistan General Elections

From 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. on February 8, 2024, Pakistan will vote in general elections to determine the composition of parliament. Around half a million security officers will be defending polling stations ahead of possible terrorism and protest activity. In the run-up to the elections, there have been several terror attacks in the western Balochistan region of Pakistan, including two explosions near the office of a candidate that killed 22 on February 7. A local separatist group, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), has threatened attacks against Pakistan after they targeted BLA positions over the border in Iran in January. There is also a high risk of social unrest with Pakistan's most popular candidate, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, barred from running. Supporters claim the election is rigged in favor of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party. While PML-N is expected to win the most seats, it is unclear if they will get a majority, and a weak coalition government with Nawaz Sharif as PM is the most likely outcome. A weak government could worsen issues surrounding inflation, the cost of living, and terrorism.

Spanish Farmers Protests Expected to Drastically Increase along with Truckers Strike

Protesting farm workers across Spain are planning to intensify their protest activity through February, targeting the second city of Barcelona. Truck drivers are to start an indefinite strike on February 10. Protesting farmers are already using their tractors to block portions of major highways and roads around their localities and have plans to move to other locations throughout the month. Similar tactics were adopted by German farmers in January 2024, when they staged several large protests accompanied by smaller protests in specific locations. Transportation disruptions will likely worsen starting on February 10 when the nationwide truck driver organization known as Plataforma Nacional joins the work stoppage with an indefinite strike. Similar strike action in 2022 caused billions in supply chain disruptions and left most road transport networks unpassable. Expect protests in Spain to worsen until workers achieve concessions. Similar protests in France and Belgium have weakened after the government appeased farmer demands.