ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - March 2, 2024

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - March 2, 2024

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• Ukraine Warns Russian Disinformation Campaign to Escalate
• China Adds More Flight Routes encroaching on Taiwan Strait
• Five Countries Pledge Personnel for Haiti Security Mission

Ukraine Warns Russian Disinformation Campaign to Escalate

On February 27, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) warned the Russian Maidan-3 disinformation campaign targeting Ukraine will likely reach its peak between March and May 2024. This timeline aligns with rumored Russian plans to begin a new offensive sometime this spring. Russia will likely try to sow discord among Ukrainians ahead of its offensive in an attempt to extract maximum gains. According to the SBU, Russia budgeted about USD 1.5 billion on Maidan-3 to "spread narratives destructive to world security and attempts to incite conflicts—both inside Ukraine and in other parts of the world where there is effective support of Ukraine." The SBU emphasized the overarching goal of Maidan-3 "is to demoralize Ukrainians, to sow panic among the population, to drive a wedge between military personnel and civilians, to make everyone quarrel with everyone, including representatives of the country's political leadership and civil society."

China Adds More Flight Routes encroaching on Taiwan Strait

On February 28, China announced plans to launch two new civilian flights a few kilometers from the median line in the Taiwan Strait. Crossing the median line is normally controversial because it unofficially separates the island from the Chinese mainland. However, China now regularly crosses the line with aircraft and boats to reinforce its claims that Taiwan is part of China and that it could be reincorporated by force if needed. The new two routes are extensions of an existing controversial flight path that China unilaterally altered on February 1. Once launched, mainland planes could easily stay over the line, further reducing Taiwan's ability to distinguish between military and civilian planes. This could reduce Taiwan's ability to respond to any attack and increase the risk of accidents. The plan was announced following the deaths of two mainland fishermen who were being chased by the Taiwanese coast guard earlier in February. While mainland China accused Taiwan of using violent and dangerous methods and stepped up coast guard patrols in the disputed water, Taiwan criticized mainland China for using the incident to breach into the island’s restricted waters. China has similar territorial disputes with its other neighbors, particularly at sea, and they are all increasing their military capabilities in response.

Five Countries Pledge Personnel for Haiti Security Mission

Several countries, including the Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Benin, and Chad, have reportedly expressed their intention to provide personnel for an international force to assist the Haitian national police in combating armed gangs. Additionally, contributions totaling USD 10.8 million have been deposited into a trust fund to support this multinational security support mission, with further pledges amounting to USD 78 million. Initially delayed due to difficulties in finding a leading country, Kenya had pledged assistance but faced legal challenges domestically. Benin has announced plans to send approximately 1,500 personnel, while the exact numbers from the other four contributing countries remain unclear.