ZeroFox Intelligence March 2024 Geopolitical Brief

ZeroFox Intelligence March 2024 Geopolitical Brief

Product Serial: B-2024-03-01a

TLP:CLEAR

In this monthly intelligence brief, ZeroFox researchers cover several recent developments, including the Israel-Hamas War, farmers protests in Europe, and foreign policy updates.

Even if Israel goes ahead with its incursion of Rafah (the last remaining city in Gaza not to face an assault), it is highly unlikely to achieve its stated aim of “total victory” against Hamas. Therefore, an eventual negotiated settlement looks likely. Despite Houthi claims that their attacks on global shipping are designed to pressure Israel to end the war, they are highly likely to continue their disruptive attacks on shipping after the war ends.

In Europe, Russia is likely to expand its aggressive behavior after the mid-March elections. Farmers' protests will likely continue until the mid-2024 EU elections and appear to have inspired other worker groups to hold their own demonstrations.

The West is having significantly more foreign policy success in eastern and southeastern Asia. The United States has secured a string of military and economic alliances all the way from Japan and South Korea to Australia, with the stated aim of limiting China’s expansion. This likely explains the increasing assertiveness of Chinese threat actors against the cyber infrastructure of China’s neighbors.

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Key Findings

• China is likely escalating its military and cyber activity against its neighbors to project power in disputed waters.
• It is exceedingly unlikely Israel will achieve “total victory” against Hamas, even if it successfully completes an offensive in Rafah.
• Protests in Argentina are likely to escalate in March 2024 as inflation remains high and the political opposition clashes with the new government.
• Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are likely to outlast the Israel-Hamas war.
• Protesting farmers in Europe are inspiring other worker groups to cause disruptions.
• With an assured outcome for the Russian election, expect a more aggressive Russian foreign policy—especially against Ukraine’s backers in Europe.
• One avenue through which the war in Ukraine could expand is in Kosovo, where Russia backs ethnic Serbs.
• West African states remain extremely politically fragile, with countries that recently held military coups having more political success than some of the most stable countries in the region.
• China’s neighbors are becoming increasingly aggressive in response to China’s claims to their territories.
• A data leak revealed that China may be relying on private hacker groups to target these countries instead.
• Social unrest could increase further in Pakistan in March 2024 when a weak coalition government takes office.
• Portugal holds snap elections in March 2024 where the key focus is not on migration and the cost of living, a rarity for EU elections.
• The funeral for Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the Russian elections shortly thereafter will demonstrate if there is any significant opposition movement remaining in Russia.