ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Lengthy Indian Elections Present Cyber and Physical Threats

Product Serial: B-2024-04-18a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Intelligence Brief, ZeroFox geopolitical researchers analyze the upcoming Indian elections, including potential cyber and physical threats that could impact the prolonged election process.

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Geopolitical and Physical GEO

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Executive Summary

India will hold a national parliamentary election from April 19 to June 1, with results expected on June 4. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is heavily favored to win a rare third term at the head of the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Modi’s pursuit of a landslide win against the fragmented opposition has led to accusations that he is intimidating political rivals and critics through the use of tax probes and legal cases.
In the cyber realm, the election has been marked by the use of online influence campaigns and generative artificial intelligence (AI) to spur support for certain candidates.
Several existing protest movements are unlikely to significantly interfere with the election but could spur heightened security and localized internet disruptions if they escalate during the drawn-out voting period.
High tensions between India and its major neighbors, China and Pakistan, will likely play out through online influence campaigns, election-related hacktivism, and cyber infiltration rather than through direct physical conflict.
At the same time, insurgents in both the Jammu and Kashmir territory and India’s forested central belt could seek to stage small-scale attacks on electoral infrastructure.