ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - April 20, 2024

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - April 20, 2024

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• U.S. Reimposes Oil Sanctions on Venezuela
• Constitutional Referendum on Continuing Narco Crackdown in Ecuador on April 21
• Volcanic Eruption in Indonesia Forces Evacuation; Disrupts Flights

U.S. Reimposes Oil Sanctions on Venezuela

On April 18, U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration reimposed oil sanctions on Venezuela, only six months after lifting them. The United States is allowing licenses that permitted some oil and gas activities to expire, and affected companies will have until the end of May to wind down their operations. Because the licenses were only announced in October, the impact on global oil prices in the short term should be muted. However, over the long term, Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, and not permitting them to reach their potential could limit the longer-term oil supply, thus pushing up prices. The United States had initially lifted the sanctions as part of an agreement with the government to hold free and fair elections sometime in 2024. However, since then, a credible opposition candidate, Maria Machado, has emerged, and Maduro has never lifted her ban on running, in addition to several other crackdowns on opposition gatherings. The United States feels that Venezuela has not upheld its end of the bargain. The United States did not want to reimpose sanctions earlier because of the oil price issue, but also because the deal included agreements from Venezuela to halt the flow of Venezuelan migrants to the United States.

Constitutional Referendum on Continuing Narco Crackdown in Ecuador on April 21

On April 21, Ecuador will hold a constitutional referendum that would give the president more powers to crack down on drug gangs. Ecuador has been under a state of emergency since January 2024, after a leading drug gang member escaped prison and after years of rising drug-related crime. Since the pandemic, Ecuador has transitioned from being one of the safest countries in the region to one of the most dangerous. The latest state of emergency is the most restrictive and has been the most successful in terms of lowering the murder rate. Other criminal metrics, like kidnappings, have remained steady. President Daniel Noboa, who assumed office in late 2023 after the previous president resigned, initially over his inability to limit drug crime, is leading a referendum push that will limit access to guns and give security forces greater power to arrest and imprison suspected gang members. Noboa's referendum is likely to pass, and his state of emergency is popular with the wider population. Ecuador then holds presidential elections in 2025 where Noboa will be the frontrunner if his performance on security matters holds up.

Volcanic Eruption in Indonesia Forces Evacuation; Disrupts Flights

A volcano in Indonesia's North Sulawesi Province is experiencing a large eruption, forcing nearby residents to evacuate and forcing flight rerouting and delays. Mount Ruang began erupting on April 16, and after multiple eruptions on April 17 Indonesian authorities raised their alert level to the highest possible stage. The volcano is on its own small island, limiting the area affected by evacuations--nonetheless, all residents on Ruang Island and many on the nearby Thulandang Island are currently subject to evacuation orders. Flights to the local airport, Sam Ratulangi International Airport in Manado, are cancelled until further notice, and some Malaysian Airlines flights to Kuala Lumpur and to Kota Kinabulu International Airport were disrupted.