ZeroFox Intelligence May 2024 Geopolitical Brief

Product Serial: B-2024-05-03a

TLP:CLEAR

In this monthly intelligence brief, ZeroFox researchers cover several recent developments, including the Israel-Hamas War, where the tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran are our primary topic. Also, the ripple effects of Russia's war in Ukraine, which is increasingly impacting countries outside of Russia and Ukraine, are a key area of concern. Going forward, May and June will see consequential elections in Africa, Latin America, and the entire European Union.

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Key Findings

U.S. military aid package should allow Ukraine to better resist Russia militarily until late 2025, after which the question of Western resolve to back Ukraine will re-emerge.
An Israeli incursion into Rafah could worsen anti-Israel protests in the United States and see Hamas’ allies escalate their military activity in the region.
A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will likely assuage protesters somewhat and calm tensions in the region, which escalated after Israel and Iran broke historic norms by directly targeting each other in April.
Expect widespread protests in Argentina in the first half of May, where protesters are seeking to block the senate from approving a key austerity bill.
Protests in Georgia are pitting EU supporters against those who wish for closer ties with Russia.
Chad is holding elections while trying to balance its historic reliance on Western military support with local support for greater ties with Russia.
South Africa will hold its most contentious elections since apartheid, and the fight for votes could turn violent.
A presidential inauguration in Taiwan presents China with another opportunity to threaten the island militarily.
Panama’s presidential elections look like a foregone conclusion unless the Supreme Court bans the leading candidate, which could lead to social unrest.
Haiti’s Transitional Council already looks inadequate, and its political future will likely be determined by an international police mission.
The Singapore leadership transition taking place in mid-May is the most significant in decades, with locals uncharacteristically angry over perceived political corruption.
Fuel shortages and a consistently high cost of living could trigger violent protests in Nigeria.