ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Russia Increases Use of Hybrid War Tactics After Aid to Ukraine

ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Russia Increases Use of Hybrid War Tactics After Aid to Ukraine

Product Serial: B-2024-05-10a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Intelligence Brief, ZeroFox geopolitical researchers analyze the potential impact of the recently authorized U.S. military aid package to Ukraine and the likelihood of Russia increasing its aggressive hybrid war strategy in response.

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Executive Summary

• The recently authorized U.S. military aid package to Ukraine is likely to empower Ukraine to stall Russia’s recent military gains.
• Russia began increasing its operational tempo on the battlefield soon after voting on the aid package began, probably in a bid to advance as far as possible before the promised aid reaches frontline positions.
• Russia will likely increase its aggressive hybrid war strategy using tactics like disinformation campaigns, the weaponization of energy resources, sabotage, and cyber campaigns to limit the effectiveness of military aid to Ukraine and force a repeat of battlefield conditions seen in the early part of 2024.
• These hybrid attacks will likely seek to influence elections in key Western nations by making support to Ukraine a primary wedge issue and exacerbate underlying societal fissures around continued financial and military support for Ukraine.
• Attacks on critical infrastructure, energy targets, and online targeting of U.S. and European elections and politicians will likely reach a crescendo ahead of major elections, especially the U.S. presidential election.