ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Continuity Likely After Mexico Elections

Product Serial: B-2024-05-29a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Intelligence Brief, ZeroFox geopolitical researchers analyze Mexico's upcoming elections, including potential physical security risks and cyber influence campaigns.

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Geopolitical and Physical GEO

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Executive Summary

Like the elections in India, South Africa, and now the United Kingdom (UK), there is a clear frontrunner in Mexico’s June 2nd general election. Presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Movimiento de Regeneracion Nacional (Morena) Party has maintained a 15–30 percent polling lead over her main opponent, Xochitl Galvez, for months and is very likely to be Mexico’s next president. Morena will also likely win most of the other 20,000 posts for governor, congress, and local representatives. What matters is the margin of victory; a narrower-than-expected victory will make it difficult for the Morena party to achieve its overarching political reforms and goal of dominating Mexico’s political institutions and economy. As with most major elections around the world, orchestrated disinformation campaigns are likely to pose a threat to informed voter behavior. As is normal during Mexican campaigning, violence by criminal groups—towards voters, candidates, and even third-party entities such as election observers and journalists—remains a significant threat to the integrity of the elections.