ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - EU Parliamentary Elections Present Cyber and Physical Threats

Product Serial: B-2024-06-06a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Intelligence Brief, ZeroFox geopolitical researchers analyze the EU's upcoming parliamentary elections, including potential physical security risks and cyber influence campaigns.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

For the most up-to-date list of ZeroFox’s Intelligence Requirements, please visit:

https://cloud.zerofox.com/intelligence/advisories/14956

Link to Download

View the full report here.

Executive Summary

The European Union (EU) will hold a transnational parliamentary election from June 6-9, with results expected by the end of the last day of voting. The EU parliament writes legislation and oversees the bloc’s annual budget, which totaled EUR 185.6 billion in 2023. It also approves candidates for some of the top positions within the wider EU bureaucracy, such as President of the European Commission. Due to sluggish post-pandemic economic growth and concerns over security, Eurosceptic parties (those opposed to increasing the powers of the EU) are expected to make significant electoral gains. At the same time, the main center-right alliance is very likely to win the largest number of seats and maintain its historical dominance of parliament. In the cyber realm, the EU election represents a key target for state-backed threat actors, particularly Russian-linked groups. The campaign season has already been impacted by several online influence campaigns, and there could be digital disruptions on the days of voting. In terms of physical security, there is a low risk that the election will be the target of an organized terrorist operation. Instead, attacks by lone actors constitute the main threat.