ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Political Upheaval Likely in French Elections

Product Serial: B-2024-06-28a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Intelligence Brief, ZeroFox geopolitical researchers analyze France's upcoming parliamentary elections, including potential cyber and physical security risks.

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Executive Summary

Following the unexpectedly strong performance of the far-right Rassemblement Nationale (RN) party in European parliamentary elections on June 6-9, French President Emmanuel Macron declared a snap parliamentary election for the end of the month. This decision has thrown France’s political system into chaos, as it is entirely unclear what party or coalition will hold power for the next three years.

Observers were initially taken by surprise when Macron dissolved the Assemblee Nationale, as despite his party’s poor results in the EU parliamentary elections, he was in no way obligated to take such action. Calling for elections immediately after a major defeat certainly appears strange, but there is a political logic. With France divided between the left, center, and right, Macron hopes to rally his centrist coalition with that of the left as a bulwark against the rising influence of the right. Failing that, Macron could still believe he benefits from a strong showing by the RN, in that it would force them to actually take part in governing and thus expose them to the unpopularity of decision-making. In this way, he could place himself in a better situation for the more consequential Presidential elections in 2027.

However, there are major risks associated with this plan. Current polls indicate that not only will RN become the largest parliamentary party, but Macron’s party, which only recently performed extremely poorly in a nationwide election, will go from the first to the third largest party in parliament. An RN victory would likely be swiftly followed by a reversal of many of Macron’s legislative accomplishments in his last term in office, leaving him without accomplishments to campaign on for the presidency.

The political situation in France has been quite tense since the announcement of the elections. Security forces are already on high alert in Paris ahead of the Olympic Games and are now preparing across the country to ensure an orderly vote and aftermath. Confrontations between the far left and far right are possible, particularly if the elections lead to a government headed by the RN.